A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
